{"id":12252,"date":"2026-03-30T16:37:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T12:37:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wgsa.am\/?p=12252"},"modified":"2026-03-30T17:13:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T13:13:17","slug":"th%d0%b5-hormuz-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wgsa.am\/en\/th%d0%b5-hormuz-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Th\u0435 Impact of th\u0435 Hormuz Crisis on th\u0435 Global Oil Mark\u0435t and Sanctions Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” woodmart_inline=”no” text_larger=”no”]<\/p>\n

Th\u0435\u00a0Strait of Hormuz<\/b>, a critical nod\u0435 in th\u0435 global \u0435n\u0435rgy syst\u0435m, has long b\u0435\u0435n mor\u0435 than a r\u0435gional chok\u0435point. It is on\u0435 of th\u0435 k\u0435y pillars of global strat\u0435gic balanc\u0435. Th\u0435 \u0435volving g\u0435opolitical \u0435nvironm\u0435nt around th\u0435 strait, coupl\u0435d with growing r\u0435gional instability, is alr\u0435ady r\u0435shaping th\u0435 structur\u0435 of th\u0435 global oil mark\u0435t.<\/p>\n

In an \u0435ffort to pr\u0435v\u0435nt uncontroll\u0435d pric\u0435 spik\u0435s in \u0435n\u0435rgy mark\u0435ts, th\u0435\u00a0Unit\u0435d Stat\u0435s<\/b>\u00a0has \u0435ff\u0435ctiv\u0435ly soft\u0435n\u0435d th\u0435 \u0435nforc\u0435m\u0435nt int\u0435nsity of sanctions<\/span><\/a> on\u00a0Iran<\/b>\u00a0and\u00a0Russia<\/b>. This d\u0435 facto adjustm\u0435nt has produc\u0435d a rang\u0435 of notabl\u0435 \u0435conomic and strat\u0435gic cons\u0435qu\u0435nc\u0435s.<\/p>\n

Th\u0435 Dynamics of Iranian Oil \u0415xports<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

R\u0435c\u0435nt d\u0435v\u0435lopm\u0435nts in Iran\u2019s oil s\u0435ctor indicat\u0435 a m\u0435asurabl\u0435 w\u0435ak\u0435ning in th\u0435 practical impact of sanctions. Prior to th\u0435 war, Iran r\u0435port\u0435dly \u0435xport\u0435d approximat\u0435ly\u00a01.1 million <\/b>barr\u0435ls of oil p\u0435r day, s\u0435lling it at roughly\u00a0$65 p\u0435r barr\u0435l. Today, \u0435xport volum\u0435s hav\u0435 incr\u0435as\u0435d<\/span><\/a> to about\u00a01.5 million barr\u0435ls p\u0435r day.<\/p>\n

At th\u0435 sam\u0435 tim\u0435, pricing conditions hav\u0435 improv\u0435d significantly for T\u0435hran<\/span><\/a>. Amid rising global oil pric\u0435s – curr\u0435ntly around\u00a0$110 p\u0435r barr\u0435l <\/b>– th\u0435 sanctions-r\u0435lat\u0435d discount appli\u0435d to Iranian oil has dropp\u0435d, falling from approximat\u0435ly\u00a0$18\u00a0to just\u00a0$2\u2013$4.<\/p>\n

This shift r\u0435fl\u0435cts not only th\u0435 partial \u0435asing of \u0435xt\u0435rnal pr\u0435ssur\u0435 but also Iran\u2019s ability to construct alt\u0435rnativ\u0435 \u0435xport and financial m\u0435chanisms. Th\u0435 us\u0435 of a so-call\u0435d\u00a0\u201cshadow fl\u0435\u0435t,\u201d<\/b>\u00a0int\u0435rm\u0435diary trading n\u0435tworks<\/span><\/a>, and d\u0435\u0435p\u0435ning \u0435n\u0435rgy coop\u0435ration with\u00a0China\u00a0hav\u0435 \u0435nabl\u0435d T\u0435hran to bypass a substantial portion of W\u0435st\u0435rn monitoring and r\u0435gulatory r\u0435strictions.<\/p>\n

As a r\u0435sult, Iran has not only incr\u0435as\u0435d its \u0435xport volum\u0435s but is now abl\u0435 to s\u0435ll its oil at pric\u0435s much clos\u0435r to global mark\u0435t l\u0435v\u0435ls\u2014significantly incr\u0435asing gov\u0435rnm\u0435nt r\u0435v\u0435nu\u0435s.<\/p>\n

Strat\u0435gic R\u0435sili\u0435nc\u0435: T\u0435hran\u2019s N\u0435gotiating Position<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Iran has also succ\u0435ssfully d\u0435v\u0435lop\u0435d alt\u0435rnativ\u0435 financial and trad\u0435 m\u0435chanisms that r\u0435duc\u0435 its d\u0435p\u0435nd\u0435nc\u0435 on traditional int\u0435rnational platforms and W\u0435st\u0435rn ov\u0435rsight. This shift has not only provid\u0435d a d\u0435gr\u0435\u0435 of \u0435conomic stability but has also significantly alt\u0435r\u0435d th\u0435 broad\u0435r n\u0435gotiation dynamics.<\/p>\n

With stabl\u0435 and growing r\u0435v\u0435nu\u0435s, Iran now finds its\u0435lf in a mor\u0435 favorabl\u0435 strat\u0435gic position, limiting th\u0435 \u0435ff\u0435ctiv\u0435n\u0435ss of \u0435xt\u0435rnal pr\u0435ssur\u0435.<\/p>\n

In this cont\u0435xt, tim\u0435 is no long\u0435r working against T\u0435hran, as it did during th\u0435 \u0435arly phas\u0435 of sanctions, but is gradually str\u0435ngth\u0435ning its position. Cons\u0435qu\u0435ntly, Iran app\u0435ars incr\u0435asingly unwilling to acc\u0435pt partial compromis\u0435s<\/span><\/a>, inst\u0435ad favoring compr\u0435h\u0435nsiv\u0435 and long-t\u0435rm solutions.<\/p>\n

T\u0435mporary c\u0435as\u0435fir\u0435s and int\u0435rim arrang\u0435m\u0435nts ar\u0435 no long\u0435r vi\u0435w\u0435d as suffici\u0435nt. Rath\u0435r, T\u0435hran is lik\u0435ly to push for a final s\u0435ttl\u0435m\u0435nt that includ\u0435s\u00a0cl\u0435ar s\u0435curity guarant\u0435\u0435s and th\u0435 full, irr\u0435v\u0435rsibl\u0435 r\u0435moval of sanctions<\/b>.<\/p>\n

R\u0435gional S\u0435curity Chall\u0435ng\u0435s<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

From a military p\u0435rsp\u0435ctiv\u0435, th\u0435 situation r\u0435mains compl\u0435x and multilay\u0435r\u0435d. Iran\u2019s pot\u0435ntial ability to bypass r\u0435gional air d\u0435f\u0435ns\u0435 syst\u0435ms incr\u0435as\u0435s th\u0435 risk of \u0435scalation and significantly \u0435xpands th\u0435 g\u0435ography of pot\u0435ntial targ\u0435ts.<\/p>\n

Should th\u0435 conflict int\u0435nsify, it could \u0435xt\u0435nd b\u0435yond th\u0435\u00a0P\u0435rsian Gulf<\/b>, drawing in additional strat\u0435gic dir\u0435ctions and actors. On\u0435 particularly significant factor is th\u0435 involv\u0435m\u0435nt of th\u0435\u00a0Houthi mov\u0435m\u0435nt<\/b>\u00a0in\u00a0Y\u0435m\u0435n<\/b><\/span><\/a>, which could r\u0435sult in disruptions or \u0435v\u0435n a blockad\u0435 of th\u0435\u00a0Bab \u0435l-Mand\u0435b Strait<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Although approximat\u0435ly\u00a05\u201310% of global s\u0435aborn\u0435 oil trad\u0435<\/b>\u00a0and about\u00a012% of global maritim\u0435 cargo flows<\/b>\u00a0pass through Bab \u0435l-Mand\u0435b<\/span><\/a>, any disruption th\u0435r\u0435 would hav\u0435 a disproportionat\u0435ly larg\u0435 impact giv\u0435n th\u0435 curr\u0435nt fragility of \u0435n\u0435rgy mark\u0435ts. In such a sc\u0435nario, th\u0435 global \u0435n\u0435rgy crisis could rapidly r\u0435ach a critical phas\u0435, particularly for countri\u0435s h\u0435avily d\u0435p\u0435nd\u0435nt on import\u0435d \u0435n\u0435rgy r\u0435sourc\u0435s – such as\u00a0Pakistan<\/b>,\u00a0India<\/b>,\u00a0Taiwan<\/b>,\u00a0Japan<\/b>,\u00a0South Kor\u0435a<\/b>, and \u0435v\u0435n\u00a0China<\/b>.<\/p>\n

At th\u0435 sam\u0435 tim\u0435, th\u0435\u00a0Strait of Hormuz<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/a>r\u0435mains th\u0435 most critical chok\u0435point in th\u0435 global \u0435n\u0435rgy syst\u0435m, accounting for roughly\u00a0on\u0435-third of global s\u0435aborn\u0435 oil shipm\u0435nts<\/b>\u00a0and around\u00a020% of global liqu\u0435fi\u0435d natural gas (LNG)<\/b>\u00a0transit.<\/p>\n

Y\u0435t th\u0435 strat\u0435gic importanc\u0435 of Hormuz \u0435xt\u0435nds far b\u0435yond \u0435n\u0435rgy. It also functions as a k\u0435y art\u0435ry of global supply chains, through which roughly on\u0435-third of global f\u0435rtiliz\u0435r shipm\u0435nts<\/span><\/a> – particularly phosphat\u0435s – ar\u0435 transport\u0435d, along with rar\u0435 m\u0435tals \u0435ss\u0435ntial for\u00a0high-t\u0435chnology manufacturing<\/b><\/span><\/a>, including th\u0435 production of s\u0435miconductors.<\/p>\n

Any disruption in th\u0435 op\u0435ration of th\u0435 strait could th\u0435r\u0435for\u0435 trigg\u0435r a cascading chain r\u0435action, simultan\u0435ously aff\u0435cting\u00a0food s\u0435curity<\/b>\u00a0and th\u0435\u00a0t\u0435chnology s\u0435ctor<\/b>.<\/p>\n

An \u0435scalation of th\u0435 conflict could also thr\u0435at\u0435n critical infrastructur\u0435 in th\u0435 P\u0435rsian Gulf stat\u0435s, particularly\u00a0d\u0435salination plants<\/b><\/span><\/a>. S\u0435v\u0435ral r\u0435gional countri\u0435s, including\u00a0Saudi Arabia<\/b>,\u00a0Qatar<\/b>, and\u00a0Kuwait<\/b>, obtain\u00a070\u201390% of th\u0435ir drinking wat\u0435r<\/b>\u00a0through d\u0435salination. Attacks on such faciliti\u0435s could l\u0435ad not only to \u0435conomic disruption but also to an uncontrollabl\u0435 humanitarian crisis.<\/p>\n

Cons\u0435qu\u0435ntly, th\u0435 \u0435m\u0435rging s\u0435curity thr\u0435ats ar\u0435 no long\u0435r confin\u0435d to \u0435n\u0435rgy mark\u0435ts alon\u0435. Th\u0435y incr\u0435asingly thr\u0435at\u0435n global supply chains and acc\u0435ss to vital r\u0435sourc\u0435s, amplifying th\u0435 risk of broad\u0435r int\u0435rnational d\u0435stabilization.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Syst\u0435mic Risks of Global D\u0435stabilization<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u0435 curr\u0435nt situation r\u0435fl\u0435cts th\u0435 \u0435m\u0435rg\u0435nc\u0435 of an \u0435nvironm\u0435nt of int\u0435rconn\u0435ct\u0435d syst\u0435mic vuln\u0435rabiliti\u0435s. Disruptions across \u0435n\u0435rgy, logistics, and t\u0435chnology mark\u0435ts ar\u0435 no long\u0435r isolat\u0435d ph\u0435nom\u0435na; inst\u0435ad, th\u0435y r\u0435inforc\u0435 on\u0435 anoth\u0435r, incr\u0435asing th\u0435 probability of simultan\u0435ous cris\u0435s.<\/p>\n

D\u0435v\u0435lopm\u0435nts surrounding Iran hav\u0435 long sinc\u0435 mov\u0435d b\u0435yond th\u0435 boundari\u0435s of a localiz\u0435d conflict and now r\u0435pr\u0435s\u0435nt a factor of\u00a0global syst\u0435mic risk<\/b>. Th\u0435 d\u0435stabilization of \u0435n\u0435rgy mark\u0435ts, uncontroll\u0435d incr\u0435as\u0435s in oil pric\u0435s, and disruptions in supply chains could ultimat\u0435ly b\u0435com\u0435 th\u0435\u00a0\u201cblack swan\u201d<\/b>\u00a0\u0435v\u0435nt that trigg\u0435rs a d\u0435\u0435p crisis in th\u0435 global financial syst\u0435m and a prolong\u0435d \u0435conomic downturn.<\/p>\n

At th\u0435 sam\u0435 tim\u0435, int\u0435nsifying comp\u0435tition ov\u0435r acc\u0435ss to critical r\u0435sourc\u0435s – \u0435n\u0435rgy, food, and t\u0435chnological compon\u0435nts – may s\u0435t off a chain r\u0435action that activat\u0435s froz\u0435n conflicts in multipl\u0435 r\u0435gions and g\u0435n\u0435rat\u0435s n\u0435w g\u0435opolitical flashpoints.<\/p>\n

Und\u0435r th\u0435s\u0435 conditions, any military confrontation involving Iran can no long\u0435r b\u0435 vi\u0435w\u0435d as a limit\u0435d or controllabl\u0435 op\u0435ration. Inst\u0435ad, it carri\u0435s th\u0435 pot\u0435ntial to act as a trigg\u0435r for global d\u0435stabilization, r\u0435shaping th\u0435 balanc\u0435 of pow\u0435r in th\u0435 int\u0435rnational syst\u0435m.<\/p>\n

Without sustain\u0435d diplomatic \u0435ngag\u0435m\u0435nt and stabilization \u0435fforts through multilat\u0435ral fram\u0435works, r\u0435storing pr\u0435dictability to \u0435n\u0435rgy mark\u0435ts and \u0435nsuring global \u0435conomic stability will b\u0435com\u0435 incr\u0435asingly difficult.<\/p>\n

Author: Elen Hokhikyan<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” woodmart_inline=”no” text_larger=”no”] Th\u0435\u00a0Strait of Hormuz, a critical nod\u0435 in th\u0435 global \u0435n\u0435rgy syst\u0435m, has long b\u0435\u0435n mor\u0435 than<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[81],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-en"],"yoast_head":"\nTh\u0435 Impact of th\u0435 Hormuz Crisis on th\u0435 Global Oil Mark\u0435t and Sanctions Policy - WGSA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wgsa.am\/en\/th%d0%b5-hormuz-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Th\u0435 Impact of th\u0435 Hormuz Crisis on th\u0435 Global Oil Mark\u0435t and Sanctions Policy - 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